Florida's Real Battle: It's Not About Independents.

Independent Support: Before & After Harris

While the media is laser-focused on the battle for “independent” voters, they’re overlooking the real fight in Florida. Sure, Harris is leading with 48% among non-partisans, leaving Trump trailing at just 41%. But here’s the thing: that’s not where the Democrats’ surge in support is coming from. Especially when considering this is the closest gap among independent support across all swing states.

You might be thinking, “Wait, isn’t that contradictory? Harris has a 7-point lead among a group that makes up 20% of the electorate—doesn’t that matter?” Sure, it’s worth noting, but let’s not forget that back in June, Biden had an 11-point lead over Trump with independents. Yet Trump still led overall by 7%. 

How did he pull that off? Trump compensated for his lack of independent support by leveraging the nearly one million-voter registration advantage Republicans hold in Florida. In 2020, with 11.1 million votes cast, that 3-point registration edge translated to a critical 33,300 votes for Trump. Trump’s weak performance among independents didn’t hurt him as much in Florida as it did elsewhere. So, what’s changed?

Hispanic Support: Before & After Harris

The real story isn’t about independents; it’s about the Hispanic vote, which makes up roughly 19% of the electorate—a substantial bloc that has dramatically shifted. Back in June, Trump was crushing Biden with Hispanics, leading by a staggering 24 points. In terms of overall vote share, this gave Trump a 4.56-point advantage. Remember that 7-point overall lead? Well, 4.56 points of that came from the Hispanic vote. His favorability was through the roof—57% of Hispanics viewed him positively, and nearly half had a “very favorable” opinion of him. Meanwhile, Biden was floundering—only 29% of Hispanics viewed him favorably, while 71% had an unfavorable opinion.

But fast forward to August 30th, and the landscape looks entirely different. Trump’s support among Hispanics has dropped 10 points to 45%, while Harris has surged to 47%, a 16-point gain from Biden’s standing. This 10-point reduction for Trump translates to a 1.9% decrease in his overall vote share, while Harris’s 16-point gain translates to a 3.04% increase in her overall vote share. The net effect? A 4.94% swing in the overall vote share. That’s not just significant—it’s downright dangerous for Trump’s campaign. His favorability among Hispanics has also taken a hit, dropping 9 points, while his unfavorable rating climbed by 12 points.

The Tipping Point: 

Democrats have often been perceived as taking Hispanic voters for granted, assuming they’re a reliable part of their base because of their minority status. But in Florida, that assumption was always on shaky ground. The Hispanic electorate here is incredibly diverse, with roots spanning Central and South America. Republicans have been steadily eroding this demographic’s support, successfully pitching their platform as better aligned with Hispanic values—particularly on issues like immigration, abortion, and socialism. So why the sudden shift? What’s driving these voters to reconsider? Two main factors stand out:

• The “Harris Effect” among minority voters: In Florida, Harris has increased Asian support by 14%, African American support by 24%, and Hispanic support by 16% for the Democrats by just entering the race. 
• Biden’s age: Biden’s age, particularly among Hispanic men, has been a liability. For Hispanic men, the Trump vs. Biden matchup was 62-26. Compare that to Trump vs. Harris, where it’s 41-44. Among Hispanic women, Trump led Biden 51-35. But against Harris? It’s 49-49. That’s an 18-point swing among men and a 14-point shift among women.

Okay… Okay… fine, enough with the numbers! This analysis is starting to look like that stats textbook you haven’t opened since high school. So, let’s cut to the chase—what would the electorate look like if there wasn’t a shift in Hispanic support? The final outcome would look like this:

•  Harris: 44.95%
• Trump: 49.145% (+4.195%)

In a scenario where Hispanic support hadn’t shifted, Trump would be leading by over 4 points—a comfortable margin. So, have the Democrats been right all along? Eh, I’m not so sure. Trump has really figured out how to build a strong Hispanic base. It seems more likely that the Democrats just needed the right candidate. The data makes it pretty clear: when Hispanics saw Biden step aside for a younger candidate of color, it sparked a ton of excitement.

Florida's New Playbook: 

So, what does this mean for Trump? He can no longer rely solely on the Republican advantage in Florida. Losing independent support? That’s manageable. But losing Hispanic support? That’s a whole different ballgame. Right now, both the Trump and Harris campaigns are neglecting Florida, thinking it’s not a battleground state because of the Republicans' registration efforts. But when you’re polling every day and building the largest public opinion database ever assembled in the state of Florida… you see angles others miss.

My advice for the Trump campaign? Get back to Florida. And just like with the independents, Trump needs to get back on message—hammer Harris on the economy, inflation, border security, and when it comes to the Hispanic vote, focus on abortion and religion while you’re at it. As for the Harris campaign? It’s simple—pour some big bucks into Florida and keep doing what you’re doing.