Arizona has been in the spotlight as a battleground state for months. With just 41 days to go, a recent poll shows Gallego up by 14 points in the U.S. Senate race—a figure Republicans were quick to dismiss as unrealistic, arguing that no party wins by that margin in Arizona. Vantage Data House polls back up their skepticism. As of 9/22/24, Lake is at 45.9%, while Gallego leads with 49.2%, and 4.87% of voters remain undecided.


The Vantage Data House daily tracking poll—based on a rolling average of 1,200 interviews with a 2.83% margin of error—shows the race tightening. Gallego’s biggest lead came on 8/27/24, with 53% to Lake’s 41.6%, an 11.4-point spread. Since then, Lake (likely boosted by former President Donald Trump) has closed the gap to just 3.3 points. For context, Kari Lake’s last race in Arizona was decided by less than 1% when she lost to Katie Hobbs.

Crosstabs by Age: 45-54 and 55-64

Where has this recent support come from? According to our daily tracking, it hasn’t shifted among party, race, gender, or education—but age. On 8/29/24, Lake had 40.16% support among voters aged 45-54 and 43.6% among those aged 55-64. Today, she’s up to 53.87% with 45-54 year-olds—a 10.27-point jump—and 54.3% with 55-64 year-olds, a 10.7-point increase. With these groups making up 34% of the electorate, it’s had a significant impact on her overall numbers.

Crosstabs by Party:

The internals of the Vantage Data House poll align with the overall numbers. Lake secures 82% of Republican support, 38% of Independents, and 6% of Democrats. Meanwhile, Gallego captures 95% of Democrats, 12% of Republicans, and 54% of Independents. Only 1% of Democrats are undecided, compared to 6% of Republicans and 8% of Independents. Take a look at the breakdown by political party registration:

With Lake securing less than 90% of Republican support and 6% of GOP voters still undecided, there’s an opportunity for her to grow her base. Meanwhile, Democrats have locked in their support, making it challenging to expand beyond their core. This means the battle will be to either convince undecided Republicans and Independents to vote Democrat or simply stay home in November. 



Favorability: Analysis 

Lake’s favorability stands at 43%, with 55.5% unfavorable. She is most favored among Republicans, 45-54 and 55-64 year-olds, those with a high school education or less, and males. Gallego’s favorability is at 50.5%, with 42.85% unfavorable. He is most favored among Democrats, Independents, those aged 65 and over, voters with a graduate degree, African Americans, and females.


The bad news for Lake? With her 43% favorable and 55.5% unfavorable ratings, she’s stuck with an inverted favorability ratio. Typically, candidates aim for a positive 2:1 ratio. In simple terms, she’s not well-liked. This puts a ceiling on how much she can grow her support, especially since she has voters backing her who don’t even like her—even 20% of Republicans rate her unfavorably, and 15% view her very unfavorably. Even if she can move some of the “somewhat unfavorables,” she’s facing an uphill battle with 50.5% in the “very unfavorable” camp, making it tough to grow her base enough to win. On the other hand, Gallego’s 50.5% favorable and 42.8% unfavorable give him a positive favorability ratio. It’s not perfect, but it’s about as good as it gets in a Republican-leaning state.

Conclusion

Although Lake isn’t down by 14 points, it doesn’t mean she’s not in trouble. We believe our data shows her at her ceiling—she’s maxed out her support. Trump’s surge in the state has given her a boost, but that’s likely why she’s where she is now. The main issue is, we’ve never seen a candidate win with worse favorability than their opponent. We’re not saying it can’t happen, we’ve just never seen it. If we were Lake’s team, we’d focus 100% of our efforts on rehabilitating her image because that’s her biggest obstacle. With the majority of the electorate holding a “very unfavorable” view of her, no amount of turnout is going to overcome that. But with just over a month left... we’d say it’s very unlikely. 

For Gallego, we’d say it’s time to turn up the heat. We’re a believer in overkill, so doubling down on communication with 45-64 year-olds is key to countering Lake’s gains. Finding a way to persuade undecided Republicans to stay home could seal the deal.