Nevada Is Not A Sure Bet For Either Trump or Harris

Intro

Vantage Data House’s latest poll shows a tight contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in Nevada, with Jacky Rosen holding a lead in the Senate race. Harris is facing some resistance with women voters and struggling to connect with older demographics—two key groups that could make or break the outcome.


Test Ballot: U.S. President

Nevada wasn’t a blowout for President Biden in 2020, but he secured the state with a 50.1% to 47.7% margin. Fast forward to today, and Vantage Data House’s tracking poll shows a shift—Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over Kamala Harris, with 49.98% to her 47.13%.

Test Ballot: U.S. Senate

While Trump’s numbers suggest he’s performing better than in 2020, the U.S. Senate race tells a different story for Republicans. Democrat Jacky Rosen holds a commanding lead over Republican Sam Brown, with 49.71% to Brown’s 43.76%.

Test Ballot: U.S. Senate - by Gender

The key difference between these two races comes down to women voters. Rosen’s lead is largely driven by her strong support among women, where she’s ahead of Brown by a 51% to 40% margin. Among men, however, the race is neck and neck, with both Brown and Rosen each capturing 48% of the vote.

Test Ballot: U.S. President - by Gender

Harris isn’t benefiting from the typical gender gap among women—in fact, Trump holds a slight edge, with 48% of women supporting him compared to 47% for Harris. Looking at our county map, Harris is only leading among women in Washoe County, with Clark County still within reach. Among men, Trump also has a narrow lead, with 50% backing him and 47% supporting Harris.

When utilizing our county map, Harris is only leading females in Washoe county with only Clark county in striking distance.

Test Ballot: U.S. President - by Age Group

Another key factor in the presidential race is the age of the voters. As our chart shows, Harris is performing strongly among voters under 35, while Trump is doing exceptionally well with voters over 35. According to our turnout model, 59% of the electorate falls into the over 35 age group, which could significantly shape the outcome.

Conclusion: