How One Candidate’s Missteps Turned the GOP’s North Carolina Dream into a Nightmare.
North Carolina is viewed as a battleground state by most pundits, and the reasons are clear. In 2020, Donald Trump won the state by 1.5%, Republican Thom Tillis won the U.S. Senate race by less than 2%, and Democrat Roy Cooper won the Governor’s race by 4%. So, it’s evident why North Carolina is considered a battleground. However, few expected the disastrous campaign for Governor being run by Lt. Governor Mark Robinson.
Robinson has made some pretty bizarre statements that don’t make him more right-wing—they just make him bananas, including:
- Advocating for a return to a time when women could not vote.
- Claiming that if women were respectful, they would keep their skirts down, eliminating the need for abortions.
- Describing himself as a “black Nazi.”
- Reportedly visiting and purchasing pornographic videos daily at a shop for the past year.
- Most of his top staff have resigned.
Looks like we’ve reached that point in the article where one side is nodding in agreement, and the other is already dialing my number. Let me stress this again: in elections, the truth itself doesn’t really matter. For all I know, Mark Robinson could’ve been hacked, and the stories might be total fabrications. Unlikely? Very. But that’s beside the point. What really matters is how voters perceive the truth. And right now, their version is crystal clear—it’s in the numbers, up and down the ballot, across every corner of North Carolina. Mark Robinson has single-handedly destroyed the GOP's hopes and dreams in North Carolina... and the Republicans should be pissed.
Test Ballot: Statewide
The result of this political circus? Democrat Josh Stein is currently leading with 54% of the vote, while Republican Mark Robinson sits at 40%, according to today’s Vantage Data House tracking poll. Women, in particular, have received the message loud and clear, with Robinson trailing by 26 points among female voters.
Crosstabs: Female
Trailing by a double-digit margin in the Governor’s race is bad news, but it may be even worse for all other Republican candidates, including President Trump.
Test Ballot: U.S. President
President Trump is trailing Vice President Harris by a 51% to 46% margin. In addition, the Democratic candidates are leading by 3% to 7% in the Lt. Governor’s race, the Attorney General’s race and the Secretary of State race.
Test Ballot: SOS / AG / Lt. Gov
This trend isn't driven by some new, compelling message from the Democrats. It's a backlash against the Republicans for nominating a candidate who could easily be labeled a “loose cannon”. If the numbers above don’t convince you, let’s dive into the candidates’ favorability ratings. Robinson sits at 40% favorable and 55% unfavorable. Meanwhile, Stein enjoys 54% favorable and 35% unfavorable. Typically, candidates aim for a 2:1 favorable-to-unfavorable ratio. Stein is pretty close, while Robinson’s numbers are completely inverted, with half of likely voters rating him as “very unfavorable.”
Favorability: Josh Stein / Mark Robinson
It is now too late for the Republicans to kick him off the ballot. The best the Republicans can do is not to talk about Mark Robinson, ignore Mark Robinson, and try to distance themselves from Mark Robinson. If this fails and the Democrats sweep the state, including its electoral votes, they will have no one to blame but Mark Robinson.
Crosstabs: Race
While the Republicans' strategy was to nominate an African American candidate to attract more African American voters, only 9% of African American voters support him in our poll. In fact, Robinson leads among African American voters in only two counties: Cherokee and Mitchell. That will not make up for the 23% deficit Robinson has among women voters. Robinson’s impact on the ticket just may be viewed as objectively the Worst Campaign of 2024.
