Analysis

You’ve heard it from us before—we’re not fortune tellers. While everyone expects us to predict the future, we’ll be the first to admit it’s impossible. What we can do, however, is tell you what’s most likely to occur based on relevant data. We base our predictions on reliable current and historical data combined with a deep understanding of voting behavior—not on wishful thinking or echoing popular beliefs. While we sometimes miss the mark, we often get it right. Before this election cycle, we’ve only missed 1 race out of 45 giving us a 97.7% historical accuracy. Unfortunately, with the 2024 Presidential election, we fell short. Why? Without the final statistics being released, it’s tough to pinpoint exactly, but we’ll explore all relevant possibilities in this analysis.

To the surprise of many, almost every swing state now shows Harris either closing the gap or taking the lead. Typically, candidates get a bump during the convention—but is that all this is? Not exactly.

Arizona has been in the spotlight as a battleground state for months. With just 41 days to go, a recent poll shows Gallego up by 14 points in the U.S. Senate race—a figure Republicans were quick to dismiss as unrealistic, arguing that no party wins by that margin in Arizona. Vantage Data House polls back up their skepticism.

Vantage Data House’s latest poll shows a tight contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in Nevada, with Jacky Rosen holding a lead in the Senate race. Harris is facing some resistance with women voters and struggling to connect with older demographics—two key groups that could make or break the outcome.

North Carolina is viewed as a battleground state by most pundits, and the reasons are clear. In 2020, Donald Trump won the state by 1.5%, Republican Thom Tillis won the U.S. Senate race by less than 2%, and Democrat Roy Cooper won the Governor’s race by 4%. So, it’s evident why North Carolina is considered a battleground. However, few expected the disastrous campaign for Governor being run by Lt. Governor Mark Robinson.

While the media is laser-focused on the battle for “independent” voters, they’re overlooking the real fight in Florida. Sure, Harris is leading with 48% among non-partisans, leaving Trump trailing at just 41%. But here’s the thing: that’s not where the Democrats’ surge in support is coming from.

In Louisiana’s Congressional District 6, all eyes are on Cleo Fields. Based on the latest Vantage Data House poll, there’s only one real question left—can Fields win outright, or will this race head to a runoff?

The current narrative about the U.S. presidential race is that it’s tight—too close to call. But we’re here to tell you that’s not true. This story has been crafted to fit the agendas of Republicans, Democrats, and the media. The reality is that this race is breaking, and it isn’t even close; it’s on a trajectory for a blowout. You’re being spun, and here’s why.